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Election 2012: Predictions

By on Nov 9, 2010 in Featured, News, Politics | 0 comments

Last week, the curtain closed on the 2010 election season. It mostly goes without saying that it’s been a a pretty wild midterm season (even though I just said it…), thanks primarily to the Tea Party insurgency. Utah wasn’t left out of the fun, either, despite becoming even more of a one-party state. Thankfully, for political junkies, that one party has a few sub-parties, most of them trying to out-conservative each other. Enough rambling, eh? After all, what I promised was predictions for 2012. A disclaimer: These are predictions made from my gut, which means I have not asked any of the politicians if they predictions pass the “sane” test. Frankly, most of them probably don’t, which makes them fun. After all, if I simply said that every incumbent is going to run for the same office, would you want to read any further? No. Okay, the predictions: U.S. Senate: Jason Chaffetz vs. Jim Matheson. This isn’t a crazy suggestion, especially with Chaffetz. He may not be committing to run against Sen. Orrin Hatch, but he is certainly not denying it. It wouldn’t surprise me if Hatch doesn’t even run, but chooses to retire rather than face the same fate as Sen. Bob Bennett. As for Matheson, I think two things happen to push him towards the Senate. First, the next two years will be tough for him in the House. He’s lost many of his Blue Dog friends and the Republicans are going to corner to “fiscal conservative” market, basically leaving Matheson in a congressional limbo. Second, redistricting Republicans could try to make Matheson’s district more conservative, or even push him into the new 4th District. His response will be to try to beat them in a statewide race, which he very well could do. Chaffetz still wins, but it’s very close. U.S. House, District 2: Morgan Philpot vs. ????. If indeed this district does get more conservative in redistricting, it would do so by having less Salt Lake County. Philpot earned his stripes among party faithful with his campaign this year, and while an open seat would bring out a dozen Republicans, Philpot will have the groundwork in place to win this seat. As for the Democrats, I’d love to say that they will have a legitimate heir for Matheson, but who? U.S. House, District 3: Gary Herbert vs. Steve Urquhart: In redistricting, this district picks up Washington County so as to carve more of Utah County and southern Salt Lake County into District 2. Chaffetz’s jump to the Senate opens this seat, and multiple Republicans will jump in. Herbert joins the fray, surprising everyone who expects him to run for another term as governor. But as with all governors, he dreams of Washington, D.C., and 2012 is his best shot. Urquhart has been chomping at the federal bit for years, and this gives him a shot. Herbert wins in a primary, which (of course) means he wins the seat. U.S. House, District 4: Peter Corroon vs. Josh Romney: I’ve said for months that Corroon’s gubernatorial bid was really a dry run for a U.S. House seat, and although he lost a lot of goodwill with his late negative tactics, he solidified his credentials as the No. 2 Donkey (Matheson being No. 1) with the Democratic base. Frankly, most Democrats were happy just to see one of their candidates actually throwing punches. Oh, and he proved he could raise serious cash. That makes him nearly a lock for the party’s nomination in the 4th District, which will be as close to a “Democrat friendly” seat as possible. Most likely, it incorporates a good chunk of eastside Salt Lake County and heads northeast, capturing Summit County and most of the Uinta Basin. As for Josh Romney, who lives in the Millcreek area, the possibility of being on a ballot headed by Mitt Romney for President would be very attractive. It would also make Josh Romney pretty much unbeatable, meaning that the Republicans would, once again, have all of the federal seats in Utah. Governor: John Valentine vs. Ralph Becker: With Herbert out, all of those would-be challengers become legitimate candidates. I think Valentine wins in a primary against a much more conservative opponent. He’s well-funded and likable, making him popular with moderate Republicans. As for Becker, well, who else? Becker at least has a recognizable name, experience at the state level, an ability to fundraise and executive experience. Plus, in 2012 he can run for governor without risking his position as mayor because he would run for re-election in SLC in 2011. Valentine would win, but at least Becker would make him work. Attorney General: Mark Shurtleff vs. Sim Gill: Shurtleff flirts with both the governor and Senate races, but in the end stays the course. Gill runs with two years under his belt as Salt Lake County District Attorney. He also runs the same campaign he ran against Lohra Miller, which is essentially one of ethical superiority. On a state level, however, it flops, and Shurtleff wins...

Chaffetz Eyes D.C.

By on Sep 30, 2010 in News, Politics | 1 comment

Washington City Paper introduces its readers to their potential future overlord: Jason Chaffetz.— In a detailed cover story, the alt-weekly for Washington, D.C. digs into the background of Utah’s own Rep. Jason Chaffetz to introduce/scare residents about the man who will, most likely, be in charge of the congressional committee that oversees the district’s affairs. Overall, it’s a great overview of the freshman representative. For any Utahn remotely familiar with Chaffetz, the story treads across a lot of familiar ground, including his time working for former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. and his surprise upset of then-Rep. Chris Cannon in 2008. It also recounts the many ways in which Chaffetz has become a media star (cough, cough … media whore … cough, cough) by impressing the likes of Glenn Beck and Stephen Colbert with his intelligence and wit. That said, it’s not a fawning profile, and for D.C. residents, it’s probably enough to get them very concerned. After all, Chaffetz believes that D.C. is not a state, but subject to Congressional rule. That means, for practical debates, that should Chaffetz take over the committee, the city’s legalization of gay marriage and its strict gun laws could be overturned. Oh, and forget about getting that Voting Rights Bill through. (To be fair, he does support folding most of the residential areas of D.C. into Maryland, and leaving the government-centric areas under the federal control). For political junkies, read to the end, which is where the newish nuggets can be found. When asked about his plans to run against Sen. Orrin Hatch in 2012, Chaffetz simply says he’s a “definite maybe.” Although he doesn’t say it, the article also points out that Chaffetz could very easily use the oversight of D.C. to reinforce his conservative credentials in Utah (because he needs that … right?). Additionally, taking on high profile battles like the above-mentioned gay marriage would ensure that Chaffetz remains in the national spotlight, probably much more than Hatch. Anyhow, it’s a good read for a long lunch. Enjoy...